by Jacob Espinoza

The list of Salem-Keizer schools that could close doesn't come out until Oct. 9. But as expected, the rumors are already running.

The district says it may close up to eight elementary schools starting in fall 2027 because student enrollment keeps falling. Since that announcement, I've seen predicted closure lists, claims that teachers already know, and theories that this is really about real estate. 

So here's what's true, what isn't and what happens between now and the December vote.

Most of what follows comes from my conversation with Superintendent Andrea Castañeda on the What's Happening Salem podcast, recorded with my new co-host Jenn Hays. I also used the district's July media briefing, as covered by OPB; school board records; reporting from Salem Reporter on the Fruitland, Lake Labish and Paulus sales and the Centennial sale; Keizertimes, Oregon Health Authority birth records, and an email exchange with Kelsey Oran of Hancock Real Estate, the broker selling several district properties. Keep in mind that the superintendent's answers are the district's side of this. Where there's outside data, I've noted it.

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"The list is already out, and staff know which schools are closing."

Not according to the district. No list has been released to anyone, Castañeda said. Asked about the prediction lists circulating online, she didn't mince words.

"If anyone would like to get incorrect information about school closures, I encourage you to go to any website that isn't ours," she said. "There are multiple ones making predictions about the school closures, and all of them are wrong."

"Closing schools will save the district a ton of money."

This is the one she hears most, she said, and it's the one people least expect to be wrong.

The district is separately looking to cut about $46 million from its budget for the 2027-28 school year. Castañeda said closures barely touch that number. "The savings that we are going to achieve through school closures is so modest compared to that reduction. It is almost inconsequential," she said.

That's because the students, and most of the costs that come with them, move to another building. A third-grade class that moves still needs a teacher, an instructional assistant and special education services. The district saves a little on utilities. The real goal, she said, is fuller schools that can afford specialists like speech therapists and social workers.

"We don't save money, but we do concentrate resources," she said.

"Closures mean mass layoffs."

At the district's July media briefing, Castañeda was asked directly whether closures would bring major layoffs. She said, "No." Most staff at a closed school would move with their students, she said.

That's separate from the $46 million budget cut, which is a different process. Castañeda said the district expects to announce staffing reduction targets for that cut in mid to late winter.

"If schools are half-empty, just use the extra rooms to make classes smaller."

Castañeda said she understands why parents ask this. The problem isn't space, she said. It's paying the people to fill it.

"Our challenge isn't that we don't have enough space," she said. "It's that we don't have the funding to pay for the additional kindergarten teacher and instructional assistant to split that 26 into two classrooms of 13."

"It's not birth rates. Families are leaving for private school."

Private schools are part of it, Castañeda said, but "at the rate of impact in the hundreds, not thousands." That's her estimate. Her best guess for the second-biggest factor is statewide online charter schools.

Birth records back up the first part. I pulled Oregon Health Authority data for Marion and Polk counties counted by where the mother lives. 

Local births peaked at 6,010 in 2007. By 2025, there were 4,769 — about 21% fewer.

The timing matters. Kids born in 2007 just graduated high school. Kids starting kindergarten now were born around 2020 and 2021, when the two counties had about 4,740 births a year. That's roughly 1,260 fewer kids than the peak year.

But births don't explain everything. The district says last year's graduating class was about 3,330 students, while the kindergarten class behind it was around 2,300. That's about 31% smaller, while births fell about 21% over roughly the same stretch. It's a rough comparison, since the county numbers include kids in other districts like Woodburn, Silverton and Dallas. Still, it suggests something beyond birth rates is at work: families moving away, homeschooling, private schools or online charters.

Salem Academy Christian Schools told WHS its enrollment grew from about 646 students in 2020-21 to 801 last year. That's real growth at one school, but it's not a count of students who left Salem-Keizer. Oregon doesn't track homeschool or private enrollment well enough to say exactly where the rest went.

"The closures will all land in the same part of town."

I asked Castañeda about this worry directly: that the oldest, emptiest schools cluster in lower-income neighborhoods. She said the district is checking every scenario against who gets affected. The district is about 47% Latino, she said. "It shouldn't be the case that 85% of the kids affected are Latino. That would be disproportionate," she said.

She also said what looks like simple math, like building age or empty seats, quickly "explodes into like 150 variables," including bus times, dual language programs and whether a receiving school has room.

"This is secretly a real estate play."

"We're not secret real estate developers," Castañeda said. "We're not the ones that are out here plotting about, you know, where a condo should be."

More on what actually happens to school buildings below.

The dates

Who gets affected

It isn't just families whose students attend closing schools. Castañeda said there will be three groups:

The Oct. 9 boundary maps are a rough first version. A boundary committee will work through them street by street after that.

How to weigh in

Castañeda said feedback falls into three buckets:

What happens to the buildings

On the WHS podcast, Jenn asked the question a lot of people have: will closed schools just sit empty? Castañeda said it depends on each building, and nobody can answer until the list is out.

"Until we have the list, we actually can't answer the question, what will we do?" she said.

In the meantime, empty buildings still get cared for. "We maintain until we sell. The lawn still gets mowed. There's still security," she said. If the district does sell a building, the money would likely go toward future building repairs like roofs and heating systems rather than the budget gap, she said.

We already have a preview. Separate from the closures, the district is selling several properties it stopped using years ago. Kelsey Oran, the Hancock broker, told me by email that her firm is working to sell six school district properties, five for Salem-Keizer and one for the Gervais School District. The board has approved selling these:

Oran said possible buyers range from nonprofits and senior housing providers to developers and investors. Hancock is the listing broker, though, so that's a seller's-side read. Some of these sites come with real limits. Cars reach Centennial through an easement over a neighboring church's land, and part of the Chavez field is wetland.

Castañeda already knows the joke she'll hear most once a list is out: turn a closed school into another McMenamins. How many can one community support? She said she hears that question all the time.

We'll find out which buildings are in play on Oct. 9.