by Jacob Espinoza

On Oct. 9, leaders of Salem-Keizer Public Schools recommended closing six of its 42 elementary schools: Brush College, Candalaria, Cummings, Englewood, Liberty and Richmond. If the school board approves the plan Dec. 8, those schools would close at the end of this school year. Affected students would start somewhere new in fall 2027.

The district's case comes down to four things: there are fewer kids, state money follows the kids, small schools are where that shortfall hits hardest, and four of the six buildings are more than 100 years old. What it isn't, by the district's own account, is a budget fix.

Closing six schools would save about $6 million in operations costs per year, and the district needs to cut about $46 million next year.

That surprises people. The most common assumption is that this is about saving money. Superintendent Andrea Castañeda told us on our podcast that it's the biggest misconception she runs into.

In the district's telling, it comes down to staffing, not savings. Salem-Keizer has about 6,000 fewer students than at its peak. Oregon pays districts by the student, so the money for teachers shrinks with enrollment. But the district still runs 42 elementary buildings, and it counts 28 of them as small. Spread across that many buildings, the money doesn't cover a full staff in each one. That's how kids end up in classrooms that combine two grades and sharing a speech therapist or counselor with another school. Closing six schools and moving those students into fuller buildings lets the district put the staff it can afford in fewer places. Castañeda's word for it is concentrating resources.

I went through the district's case to see what holds up, using budget documents, its Oct. 9 media briefing, Castañeda's answers to my follow-up questions and the episode my co-host Jenn Hays and I recorded with her Sept. 22. It matters now because you have about two months to weigh in. The school board takes public comment Oct. 13, and listening sessions start the next day.

We recorded that episode before the list came out. If you want the district's reasoning in Castañeda's own words, it's 49 minutes well spent.

Listen to the full episode here.

If a friend forwarded this email to you…

Salem-Keizer peaked at about 42,000 students around 2018 and has about 36,000 today. The drop shows up in the youngest grades first: each year's kindergarten class is roughly 1,000 students smaller than the senior class graduating, the district's closure FAQ says. The district points to falling birth rates as the main cause.

Because Oregon funds schools by the student, fewer kids means less money, and small schools feel it first. The plan would cut the number of small elementary schools in half, from 28 to 14.

What the plan won't do is fix the budget. The FAQ says closing a school saves about $1 million per year, because most staff move with the students. Six schools would save about $6 million, against about $46 million the district needs to cut next year. Castañeda wrote in an Oct. 11 email that the $46 million estimate could still change before an update in December.

"The savings that we are going to achieve through school closures is so modest compared to that reduction. It is almost inconsequential," Castañeda said on the podcast.

The district also says the closures would avoid about $15 million in near-term repairs, like new heating systems and fire alarms, Salem Reporter reported. That's a one-time cost avoided, not yearly savings, and it comes from construction bonds voters approve, which can't be spent on teachers.

The question I heard most was about Candalaria. One reader on Facebook put it this way: "Interesting that they are closing the top elementary school in the district!"

The test scores back that up. Two of the district's three best-performing schools on state tests are on the list, Candalaria and Brush College, Salem Reporter reported. The same story said the district did not weigh academic performance heavily.

Castañeda goes further than that. At the briefing, she said schools are "much more than absolute proficiency" and that she is more focused on a school's culture and how much its students are growing. When I asked about Candalaria by email, she said test scores aren't among the criteria at all. The board's selection criteria, in policy EL-10, leave out academic performance on purpose.

"We should not and will not allow already-painful school closure decisions to become a punitive system that judges schools, students, and families based on a test score," she wrote.

So what did count? The district's school summaries give two reasons for Candalaria:

Candalaria students would move to Salem Heights and stay on the path to attend Leslie Middle School and South Salem High School. Castañeda also pointed me to a three-page summary of why Candalaria was picked and to school-level data on the facilities criteria.

District leaders say they used 11 criteria set by the school board, including building quality, enrollment trends, equity and transportation, and that no formula or single factor decided the outcome. The equity criterion asks whether a closure would fall hardest on underserved students. Two of the six are Title I schools, which get extra federal money because they serve more low-income students, and their students would move to other Title I schools, Salem Reporter reported. I couldn't find a side-by-side of how all 42 elementary schools measured up on every criterion.

How the six compare, using the district's numbers for this school year:

One stands out. Cummings is 69% full, higher than the 64% average across all the district's elementary buildings. The district's stated reasons there are that most classrooms have no cooling, major building systems need replacing and the school has transportation problems.

The district's school summaries list building problems at the other four:

Families at four of the six schools started Change.org petitions after the list came out Oct. 9. I read each one. Signature counts are as of Monday morning, Oct. 12. I didn't find petitions for Candalaria or Liberty, though Candalaria families have a Save Candalaria Facebook group that is organizing turnout for the Oct. 13 board meeting.

Cummings: 580 signatures

Kevin Jackson, who started the petition, calls Cummings a neighborhood hub for Keizer families. He argues closing it would mean longer trips to school, broken-up friendships and crowded receiving schools, and that the decision looks driven by money more than by what kids need. He suggests community fundraising or public-private partnerships instead. Supporters wrote about kids who would be split from longtime classmates by the new boundary line, and one parent wrote about how well staff have supported her son with an IEP, a learning plan for students with disabilities. Another supporter wrote: "Don't punish the children for grown up problems."

Richmond: 233 signatures

Rosita Carbajal, a Richmond parent, started this one, and it makes the most specific asks. It wants the board to release the enrollment, financial and facility data behind the recommendation, look for ways to keep Richmond open, weigh the effect on its dual-language program, include Richmond families before the vote and consider delaying the Dec. 8 decision. It also points to transportation and the strain on working families. A Richmond teacher signed it, and so did a family with two generations at the school. One parent wrote that the neighborhood just started a neighborhood council: "Richmond neighborhood NEEDS a community school. It's an anchor."

Richmond is the only school on the list with a dual-language program, Salem Reporter reported. Both schools that would take in Richmond students, Bush and Four Corners, offer dual-language classes, and the district's FAQ says every dual-language student will be able to stay in a dual-language program.

Englewood: 158 signatures

Amanda Mockabee's petition is short. It argues Englewood is a community school and that closing it would hurt the whole surrounding neighborhood, not only its families. "We're not just a school, we're a community!" one supporter wrote. Englewood also has the most organized campaign: a public Facebook group, Save Our School – Englewood Elementary, with 162 members, and its own website, savelittleenglewood.org, which hosts a second petition.

Brush College: 58 signatures

Carl Watson, a Brush College parent, started this petition Oct. 11. It argues the school offers things a larger school can't, that kids would lose teachers who know them well, and that the school ties together neighborhood events, volunteers and local business partners. It suggests moving money around in the budget, finding new funding or adding programs to draw more students. A Facebook post sharing it also pointed to the historic building and its old school bell.

Two arguments run through several petitions: that the closures are about money, and that small schools serve kids better. Some petitions cite research on small schools without naming it. Those are also the two points the district disputes most directly. It says closures save little money, and that small schools are where blended classrooms and shared specialists show up.

I read the comments on our Oct. 9 video on Facebook and Instagram. These are your questions, in your words, and what I found.

"I bet taxpayers won't see a reduction in taxes."

That's a safe bet. Local property taxes cover only about 16% of the district's general fund, and that tax rate is fixed under state law. [CONFIRM: with the district] The separate levy for construction bonds is set by what the district still owes on past projects. Closing a school doesn't change either one.

"Yeah sure make the classroom sizes bigger than they already are."

The district's FAQ says the plan is built on current class ratios and doesn't depend on bigger classes. Castañeda said the same in her email: "The school closure recommendation does not increase the student:teacher ratio." But she said the $46 million in cuts the district faces next year is a separate decision that could affect class size. "We will do all we can to leave ratio untouched, but we cannot make promises this early," she wrote. The district hasn't released projected class sizes for the schools taking in students.

A related question came up a lot: if buildings have empty rooms, why not make classes smaller? Castañeda said on the podcast that space isn't the limit.

"It's that we don't have the funding to pay for the additional kindergarten teacher and instructional assistant to split that 26 into two classrooms of 13," she said.

"How can Four Corners fit more students???"

Part of Richmond's attendance area would move to Four Corners Elementary. The district's FAQ says planners, architects and educators checked the space using blueprints and building walk-throughs, and that the plan keeps receiving schools below full capacity. It hasn't published before-and-after enrollment for each receiving school. That's on my list.

"…my girls love Liberty and they just installed a new front area"

Others said two of the schools recently got new cafeterias [CONFIRM: which two]. Construction comes out of bond money that can't be spent on teachers. Whether it made sense to upgrade buildings that are now on the closure list is a fair question for the district. Salem Reporter covered this story recently.

"Of the schools in Keizer, Cummings would not have been my thought for one to close. Especially with how many homes/apartments that are being built in the area."

Readers said the same about Brush College in west Salem. Nothing the district has published says whether its enrollment forecasts count housing under construction near those two schools. That's on my list, too.

"Like they are going to listen and change their mind."

Castañeda said on the podcast that the district is putting out one recommendation, with no backup plan held in reserve. She said that if the public finds something badly wrong with it, "that will matter." The boundary maps are more open. She called them a "proof of concept," and a committee of parents and staff will rework them before the board votes on boundaries in February.

"What they plan to do with the property is the real question."

No decision yet. Chief Operations Officer Paul Odenthal said at the briefing that the district will take that up in the spring, after the closure vote. He said some sites could be held for a future replacement school and others sold.

Castañeda answered my questions on Candalaria and class sizes, and her answers are above. I'm still asking about the housing forecasts and about walking distance, since Richmond parents say most kids walk to school now. The district's FAQ says walking zones and bus eligibility will be released in the spring.

This likely isn't the last round, either. District leaders said at the briefing that more closures will be discussed in coming years, possibly including middle and high schools.

Nothing is final until the school board votes. The timeline, from the district's announcement and closure page:

You can register for a listening session and request child care or interpretation. To see where your address would land, use the district's school lookup tool.

So why is Salem-Keizer closing schools? There are fewer kids, the money follows the kids, small schools are where that shows up first, and several of these buildings are at the end of their life. It isn't a fix for the budget, and the district says so. Whether these are the right six is still up for debate, and that's the part you get a say in.

What do you still want answered? Reply to this email and I'll add it to my list for the district.

Listen to our full conversation with Castañeda.